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Tags: weather | pattern | cold | tropics

Abnormal Cold in Tropics May Impact Short-Term Weather Pattern

Thirty-day forecast model

Thirty-day forecast model showing below normal temperature departure for the month of June. [Weatherbell LLC]

By    |   Thursday, 02 June 2022 10:39 AM EDT

A rare and abnormally colder than normal weather pattern may impact the tropical region of South America, Mexico, and Latin America over the next 30 days.

This is a region in June, July, and August that normally sees stable tropical temperatures. The average high temperature in Caracas, Venezuela, sits at 82 degrees Fahrenheit from June to August.

However, according to most of our global models, June may end with that city falling well below their historic average high temperature.

The impacts on a slight variation by one or two degrees in temperature may cause ripple effects in the agricultural production that normally requires warm, even-keeled temperatures.

This tropical region lies just to the east of a raging "La Nina" signature marked by colder than normal Pacific water temperatures, which have been in place for the last three years.

However, when you compare prior multi-year La Nina signatures, such as 2009, 2001 and 1985, one does not find this level of cold setting up this far-reaching for 30-day stretches. So, what’s behind this odd, cold pattern?

On Jan. 14, a volcanic eruption on the Island of Tonga caused a massive shift in sea surface temperature in the South Pacific due to the turbulence the massive blast created. The volcanic eruption in Tonga was the largest since Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the influence of this event on overall global weather remains unclear.

Whether this abnormal pattern is La Nina-driven or part of the Tonga event, the consequences have and will continue to undoubtedly disrupt the overall global weather pattern. Year to date, the tropical zones are running below average, frosts have become more frequent in Brazil, and sea ice over the arctic is running well above the 10-year average.

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A rare and abnormally colder than normal weather pattern may impact the tropical region of South America, Mexico, and Latin America over the next 30 days.
weather, pattern, cold, tropics
288
2022-39-02
Thursday, 02 June 2022 10:39 AM
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