'24 Senate Showdown: Dems Defend 23 Seats, GOP 10

The Senate returns to session after Labor Day with its first vote since July 27, a span of 40 days.

But it wasn't the workload before it that had the attention of the most recent newsletter from Punchbowl News. It was the 2024 Senate landscape, where Democrats will be defending 23 seats compared to just 10 for Republicans.

Democrats hold a narrow two-seat Senate edge over Republicans: 49 GOP senators, 48 Democrat senators, and three independents.

This could be an election lining up favored for flipping the Senate to red, but a number of races still have yet to clearly define the candidates.

The stage is set.

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.

He has yet to decide on a reelection campaign and will face big-dollar opposition from the GOP, including moderate GOP Gov. Jim Justice or Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va.

Manchin is not even certain to remain a Democrat, much less a Senate candidate. He has been mentioned as a "No Labels" third-party presidential candidate.

There is "no update" on Manchin's future plans, a spokesman told Punchbowl News, which predicted: "If Manchin decides not to run, Democrats have practically no chance of keeping that seat."

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz.

She left the Democratic Party, but still caucuses with them and holds committee seats for them. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will have a dilemma before it if she runs again as an independent since there are House Democrats like Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., ready to run as a hard-line Democrat.

The GOP race is lining up to be between Kari Lake, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, and Blake Masters.

But Sinema is the incumbent and holds the cards before her early 2024 decision.

"Arizonans are sick of career candidates constantly fighting the next election," Sinema spokeswoman Hannah Hurley told Punchbowl News. "Kyrsten promised Arizonans she'd be an independent senator who delivers lasting solutions, and that's exactly what she's done."

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.

Sanders will turn 82 on Friday and there is a burgeoning hot-button voting issue with the elderly hanging on too long in politics. He wins if he runs, though, according to the report.

"The people of Vermont do not want never-ending campaigns," Sanders spokesman Mike Casca told Punchbowl News in a statement. "Sen. Sanders will make an announcement when it's appropriate."

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah

Romney, 76, is another aging senator undecided about his future. His anti-Trump position makes a contentious GOP primary all but certain, though.

"I think everyone realizes it's his race to lose if he gets in," Romney chief of staff Liz Johnson told Punchbowl News. "He's well-positioned to have the resources, political organization, and voter support to win, and he is not fazed by the prospect of a primary."

There are a number of candidates ready to jump in, including former Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah; and Utah state House GOP Speaker Brad Wilson.

Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs is already running.

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