After Democrats made gains during the summer, the tide once again is turning to Republicans making significant gains in the midterm elections, new polling shows.
"I'm wishing the election were in August," Matt Bennett of the center-left group Third Way told Politico. "I think we peaked a little early."
While Democrats gained ground during the summer following the Supreme Court's ruling that overturned the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationally, rising inflation, and gasoline prices are moving voters to the GOP.
A recent CBS News/YouGov poll estimates the GOP taking back the majority in the House 224-211, and a New York Times/Siena College poll shows the GOP enjoying a 2-percentage-point advantage over Democrats on the generic election ballot, 49%-45%.
"Look, man, I've been at this for 30 years, and it is always the period in late September and early October when an election starts to tilt and move," Mark Longabaugh, a progressive ad maker who worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2016 campaign told Politico.
"So, we're at that moment, and I don't think you can look at these numbers across the country and say anything, but it looks like it's moving in Republicans' direction. I think it's clear Republicans have seized the upper hand."
In the CBS News poll, 65% of voters said they felt the economy was getting worse, 63% said they are seeing gasoline prices rising, compared to just 16% noting increases in August.
While most of those surveyed blame supply chain issues or global factors for rising prices, 63% and 58% respectively, almost half of those responding, 47%, fault Democrat policies.
Forty-eight percent said they believe Democrat policies harmed the economy, compared to 29% who believe they are helping it, and 23% that said it made no difference, or were unsure.
The poll was conducted with a sample of 2,069 registered voters between Oct. 12-14 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
The Times poll shows 58% of voters disapproving the job President Joe Biden is doing, and 64% saying the country is on the wrong track.
On the issues, that poll found 26% saying the economy is the most important problem facing the country, with inflation and the cost of living coming in second with 18%, followed by a host of issues including abortion registering just 5% or less.
The Times poll was conducted Oct. 9-12 with 792 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
"I think we had three really good weeks in August that everybody patted themselves on the back," scoffed one Democrat strategist who advises major party donors, talking with Politico.
"We were like, 'Yeah, that should be enough to overcome two years of sh***y everything.'"
Now, he said, "It's not looking great. The best we can hope for right now is a 50-50 Senate, but the House is long gone."
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