As Republicans look to retake Congress in November, a new Trafalgar poll shows a generic Republican leading a generic Democrat by 6 points.
Released on Thursday, the generic ballot survey found that 47.2% of respondents plan to vote for a Republican candidate; 41.4% plan to vote for a Democrat candidate; 11.4% were undecided.
After the GOP swept into power in blue-leaning Virginia last year and nearly won the New Jersey governor's race, Republicans had high hopes of a "red wave" in the 2022 congressional midterm elections. Forty-year high inflation and sticker shock at the grocery store and gas pump compounded Democrats' problems with voters, as President Joe Biden's approval ratings sagged.
In recent weeks, however, reaction to the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade and falling gas prices, as well as a slight uptick in Biden's approval ratings, gave Democrats a glimmer of hope that the party could buck historical midterm trends against the party in power and retain its majorities.
After the FBI's unprecedented raid on former President Donald Trump's Florida home Mar-a-Lago, however, which prompted bipartisan outrage, 51% of Republicans in a recent YouGov poll said they were more enthusiastic about voting in this year's congressional elections than last cycle's.
The largest age group to participate in the Trafalgar poll was those 45-64, followed by 65 and older, while respondents were overwhelmingly white (71.2%). Black respondents made up 12.3%; Hispanic participants made up 11.5%; Asians accounted for 3.9%.
More Democrats than Republicans were sampled, 39.3% versus 35.6%, and people reporting no political affiliation comprised 25.1%.
Women were more likely to take part in the survey than men, 53.3% to 46.7%.
The Trafalgar poll was conducted Aug. 28-30 and surveyed 1,084 likely general election voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
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