America’s political divide is deepening, with red states becoming more conservative and blue states more liberal, according to a recent USA Today analysis. The study examined voting patterns in the nation’s 3,113 counties and revealed a sharp shift in partisan alignment since 2012.
The survey found that most of the country is no longer competitive politically, with only a few states deciding national elections. Additionally, in 40 of the 50 states, one party controls governorships and state legislatures, leading to a patchwork of competing laws across the U.S. on divisive issues like abortion and transgender care.
Harvard political scientist Ryan Enos said the shift is driven by both population movement, changes in party loyalty, and electorate turnover as young people and immigrants become eligible to vote. Enos said, "You see the homogeneity of counties becoming greater over, let's say, the last 16 years of American politics.”
The survey found that 73% of counties became more partisan from 2012 to 2020, and that 40 states became more partisan — meaning that partisan leanings in more than half of the state's counties intensified. Just 8% of counties changed color during that time.
The shift towards homogeneity has driven campaign strategy in this year’s presidential election, with both candidates focusing most of their efforts on the seven key battleground states that will decide the winner.
The USA TODAY/Suffolk polls of 500 likely voters in each state, taken by landline and cellphone, have error margins of 4.4 percentage points. The Arizona survey was taken Sept. 21 to 24 and the Florida survey Aug. 7 to 11.
Kate McManus ✉
Kate McManus is a New Jersey-based Newsmax writer who's spent more than two decades as a journalist.
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