The first New York Times/Siena College survey conducted this election cycle shows both parties in a virtual tie for control of Congress, the paper revealed on Wednesday.
In the results, Democrats lead Republicans by just 1 percentage point among registered voters nearly four months out, at 41% compared to 40%. An additional 19% said they preferred another party to control the chambers or were undecided.
A plurality of respondents, 36%, listed the economy/inflation as their top issue heading into November. Of those, 62% planned to vote for Republicans compared to 25% who said they support Democrats.
A surprisingly low number, 6% of registered voters, said the fallout from the Supreme Court’s overruling of Roe v. Wade was a top issue for them. Most of them were Democrats, at 67%. Conversely, 15% of Republican voters said similar.
The Times' poll further adds to the narrative of Hispanic dissatisfaction with Democrats and the trend toward the GOP. The group only favored Democratic candidates by 3 points, 41% to 38%, which would be a considerable drop from past elections.
However, a divide between college graduates and those without college degrees grew. Of those with a four-year college education, 56% said they supported a Democratic candidate, while a plurality of those without a degree favored Republicans.
"Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights," wrote Josh Kraushaar in Axios.
"Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant," he added.
The poll of 849 registered U.S. voters was conducted between July 5 and 7 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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