North Korea may be able to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile able to carry a nuclear warhead that could reach the United States by 2018, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.
That determination, made by the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency, moves up the previous timeline by two years, according to U.S. officials who spoke to the Post on condition of anonymity.
South Korean officials have made similar revisions after observing the Kim Jong Un regime's recent spate of tests. Though only a fraction of the missile tests have been successful, those that have succeeded have caused worry in the United States and North Korea's Asian neighbors.
According to the confidential DIA report, North Korea should be able to produce a "reliable, nuclear-capable ICBM" by next year. Whether Pyongyang could develop a miniaturized nuclear warhead to fit on top of the missile has not been confirmed, though Kim's government has made unverified claims to have done so.
The DIA's assessment, according to the Post, means that by 2018 North Korea's ICBM capability would have moved past the prototype stage and into production.
The DIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence would not comment on the classified documents, though Scott Bray, ODNI's national intelligence manager for East Asia, released a statement saying, "North Korea's recent test of an intercontinental range ballistic missile — which was not a surprise to the intelligence community — is one of the milestones that we have expected would help refine our timeline and judgments on the threats that Kim Jong Un poses to the continental United States.
"This test, and its impact on our assessments, highlight the threat that North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs pose to the United States, to our allies in the region, and to the whole world. The intelligence community is closely monitoring the expanding threat from North Korea."
Pyongyang's recent tests are believed to have been intended to demonstrate the ability to reach the altitude and distance requirements needed to strike the United States. One of its few remaining milestones is the ability for its missiles to safely re-enter to atmosphere.
A re-entry test is expected as early as Thursday, which is a North Korean holiday marking the end of the Korean War.
"They're on track to do that, essentially this week," one U.S. official told the Post.
North Korea now is "approaching the final stage of being a nuclear power and the owner of an ICBM," Cha Du-hyeogn, an adviser to former South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, said.
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