Hagan, Tillis in Tied Race, NBC/Marist Poll Reveals

The hotly contested U.S. Senate race pitting incumbent Democrat Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis is tied, according to a NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday.

The poll, which also surveyed the Nov. 4 races in several other battleground states, found that Hagan and Tillis are tied at 43 percent among 758 likely voters surveyed between Oct. 19-23, reports Talking Points Memo.

Another seven percent of those participating in the poll, which carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, said they support Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh and six percent of the respondents said they remain undecided.

Hagan and Tillis both maintain their support among their parties' base voters, but Tillis leads independents, and there is also a large gender gap among voters, the poll revealed. Hagan leads 10 percent of the women likely to vote, while Tillis was up by 11 percent among men.

"Up until this point, incumbent Hagan has been considered the strongest Democrat among
the so-called Democratic firewall states in this election cycle," said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff,
director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Now, this is a contest that could go either way, and the outcome may determine control of the Senate."

Tillis' gain came because of increasing support among independent voters. He holds a 10-point lead, at 41 percent to 31 percent, among independent voters over Hagan, up from a four-point edge he had held, the poll shows. Meanwhile, Haugh is also siphoning off independent voters, garnering 17 percent of them, up from the last poll numbers of 12 percent.

Both Hagan and Tillis have problems with their favorability ratings. Those surveyed said 41 percent have a favorable view of Hagan, compared to 48 percent with a negative view. Tillis netted a 40 percent favorability rating, with 44 percent saying their view is negative.

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