NY Times/Siena Final Poll: Trump Surges in Pa, Race 'Toss-Up'

The final swing state polls by The New York Times and Siena College for this election cycle show former President Donald Trump surging in Pennsylvania, while Vice President Kamala Harris showed renewed pull in North Carolina and Georgia.

But with the numbers in all seven states remaining within the poll's margin of error, the eventual winner remains as a toss-up, according to The New York Times Sunday.

The race is now tied in Pennsylvania, according to the polls, where before Harris had held a 4-point lead in all previous New York Times/Siena College polls since entering the race.

Strategists from both campaigns say the the Keystone State is vital for an eventual win Tuesday.

The poll shows Harris holding leads in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Arizona. The two are locked in close races in the other three states, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

The close numbers mean both candidates have several pathways to capture the 270 votes from the Electoral College they will need to claim the White House unless the polls overestimated or underestimated either candidate, the Times noted.

Josh Kraushaar, the editor-in-chief of The Jewish Insider, pointed out on X that the Times reported that: "Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”

Meanwhile, about 11% of the voters said they were undecided or could be persuaded toward either candidate, but the poll showed that out of the 8% of voters who said they have recently decided on a candidate, 55% picked Harris, with 44% picking Trump.

According to the University of Florida Election Lab, 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots. In the Times poll, 40% of those surveyed in the swing states said they have already voted, and Harris won those voters with a margin of 8 percentage points.

The poll was conducted with 7,879 likely voters across the seven battleground states, including 1,025 in Arizona, 1,004 in Georgia, 998 in Michigan, 1,010 in Nevada, 1,010 in North Carolina, 1,527 in Pennsylvania, and 1,305 voters in Wisconsin from Oct. 24 to Nov. 2.

The margin of error was plus or minus 1.3 percentage points across the seven states and plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in each state's poll.

Meanwhile, rates of early voting are especially high in North Carolina, with Harris ahead with early voters by 8 percentage points.

Nine out of 10 North Carolina voters said Hurricane Helene and its aftermath didn't have any impact in their ability to vote, and more than half the voters responding to the poll said they've already cast their ballots.

Arizona was the only state that the poll found Trump winning among the 46% of people who said they had already voted, taking 56% to 46% over Harris.

The polls further showed that the economy remains voters' top concern, but in other states like Wisconsin, where Harris has held a lead, abortion almost matches the economy as the most important issue.

Arizona voters, though, said immigration is growing as a crucial issue in the election, potentially leading to higher numbers for Trump, who continues to make the border a key battle cry in his campaign.

And in Arizona, where Trump leads, immigration also continues to rise as a crucial issue driving voters’ choices.

The survey showed that Trump is continuing to hold white voters who did not attend college and men, while Harris has the lead in Black voters, particularly women, and Latino voters.

The gender gap also remained wide with Harris favored by women and Trump by men.