Republican Scott Brown is leading incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen by 1.5 percent in an exceedingly tight New Hampshire race, according to the most recent poll.
The
New England College survey on Oct. 24 shows that Brown is ahead by 48.3 to 46.8 percent over Shaheen, which the institution says is equivalent to a dead heat.
Dr. Wayne Lesperance, professor of political science at New England College and director of the Center for Civic Engagement, which includes the New England College Polling Institute, called the election a "toss-up."
"A 1.5 percent margin is incredibly narrow and makes this race a statistical dead heat," Lesperance said. "Brown’s recent success comes from narrowing the lead Shaheen had with women to just under 5 percent."
However, an average of six polls in the New Hampshire race by RealClearPolitics shows Democrat Shaheen leads with a 2.2-point advantage.
Those polls, conducted from Oct. 15-24 and giving that average, include ARG, New England College, CNN/Opinion Research, CBS News/NYT/YouGov, UMass Lowell/7 News, and Suffolk/Boston Herald.
The CBS News/NYT/YouGov poll from October 15-21, in fact, has Shaheen ahead by 5 points, according to
RealClearPolitics.
The New England College poll consisted of 1,132 likely New Hampshire voters, and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
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