Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., is gaining in his race against New York Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul, according to the latest Siena College poll.
Despite Zeldin's momentum, Hochul holds a 52%-41% lead in the blue state three weeks before the midterms election, the Siena College survey found.
"Over the last three weeks, Zeldin has narrowed the deficit he must overcome from 17 points to 11 points in trying to become the first Republican in 20 years to win statewide," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a Tuesday press release.
"However, with three weeks to go, Hochul maintains the upper hand based on the 84-10% support she gets from Democrats, who represent half of the state's enrolled voters."
Marist College poll results last week showed Zeldin trailing by just 8 points among New Yorkers who were definitely planning on casting ballots.
Hochul's edge is due to her standing in New York City, where she leads 70-23% in the Siena poll. However, her 5-point September lead in the downstate suburbs has turned into a 4-point Zeldin lead.
"The good news for Zeldin is that he's further solidified his Republican support, 81-12%, up from 77-17%, and has increased his lead among independents from three points to nine points, 49-40%," Greenberg said.
"While Democrats are bullish on the direction of the state, Republicans overwhelmingly – and independents by a wide margin – are not. That works to Zeldin's advantage, as does the fact that the issues most important to voters – at least as of three weeks ago – play more into the messaging of the Zeldin campaign rather than the Hochul campaign."
Men, who favored Hochul by 4 percentage points last month, now prefer Zeldin by 5 points.
Hochul holds commanding leads among women (61%-32%), Blacks (92%-2%), and Latinos (56%-38%).
"Zeldin must still overcome a wide enrollment disadvantage, and must attract more than 10% of Democrats and 49% of independents to be successful in New York," Greenberg said. "Hochul maintains a double-digit lead and simply needs Democrats to vote. Simple in theory. Three weeks to go."
Republican Michael Henry also has moved closer to Democrat Attorney General Letitia James, who holds a 51%-40% advantage.
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has a 57%-37% cushion in his reelection race against Republican Joe Pinion.
The Siena College poll was conducted among 707 likely voters between Oct. 12-14. It has a margin of error of 4.9%.
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