Dick Morris: Iran Deal Flunks in Polls

Mark Twain said there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

The recent Washington Post/ABC News Poll on Iran is a good example of the third kind.

Published last week, the survey led to headlines that proclaimed the popularity of the Iran Nuclear Deal recently signed by President Obama. The data showed public approval of the deal by 56-37 percent.

But, thankfully, Pew Research also published a poll, taken at the same time that showed Americans opposed to the deal by 38-48 percent.

The difference?

The Post/ABC poll asked the entire sample what they thought of the deal. The Pew Poll only asked the 79 percent of the sample who had heard of the deal their opinion of it.

In the abstract, who could be against a deal that would, in the words of the Washington Post/ABC News poll, "lift economic sanctions in exchange for Iran restricting its nuclear program in a way that makes it hard for Iran to produce nuclear weapons?"

A no brainer. We would all support such a deal. The question is: Does this deal do what it says it does?

And the more the American people see of this flawed deal, the more they realize it will not.

The innate skepticism of Iran, coupled with the severe restrictions on inspection and the generous amount of nuclear activity still legal for Iran are combining to undermine support for the deal. The more the specifics of the deal are fleshed out in the coming months, the more opposition will mount.

Without greater public pressure, don’t count on the weak-willed Democratic Senators to vote "no."

Actually, we can count on precisely 12 Democrats to vote against the deal. Combined with 54 Republicans, these dozen defections make 66 votes against the agreement, one short of enough to kill it.

The vote against the treaty will be 34-66 as Democrats conduct an internal auction in their caucus to decide who to let off the hook and allow to vote no on the deal. The Jewish Democrats and those from heavily Jewish states will be allowed to vote no, but no more than 12 Democrats can be let off the hook.

But this charade can be interdicted by a strong public revolt against the deal. Advertising on television can be very effective here. For each of the past five nights on the TV show Jeopardy, for example, groups opposing the deal have run an effective ad. Pile it on!

As with Obamacare, the more voters know, the more they will turn on the Iran deal. And, as with Obamacare, the Democrats will pay in the next election for pushing it. Public opinion is already congealing against them.