The flow of illegal immigrants coming to the United States is on the decline, though there is debate about whether the trend is the result of beefed up border security or other factors such as a less-than-robust American economy, according to
The Washington Post.
Citing data from the
Pew Research Center, the Post reports that immigration flows are at their lowest level in 20 years. The population of illegal immigrants in the U.S. tripled between 1990 and 2007 — to 12.2 million — a figure that has dropped by about 1 million.
In December, Pew also reported that, for the first time in more than 60 years of Border Patrol data, more non-Mexicans than Mexicans were apprehended at U.S. borders in 2014.
In April, Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Jeh Johnson credited the "massive investment" in border security over the last decade that has funded drones, sensors, more than 600 miles of new fences, and a near doubling of the Border Patrol to more than 18,000 people, according to
The Los Angeles Times.
"The word's gotten out that it's now harder than it used to be to cross our southern border," Johnson said.
President George W. Bush can be credited for a great deal of the resources poured into Customs and Border Protection’s budget, which has seen a 75 percent increase — to $10.7 billion — in the past decade, according to the Post, which notes that President Barack Obama has "marshaled more forces as well."
The steady decline in immigration flows, even as the U.S. economy picks up, runs counter to conventional wisdom.
Since the 1990s, the Post reports, "the opposite was true: The better the economy, the more people tried to come."
"Every month or quarter that the economy continues to improve and unauthorized immigration doesn’t pick up supports the theory that border security is a bigger factor, and it’s less about the economy and we have moved into a new era," Marc Rosenblum, deputy director of the U.S. immigration program at the Migration Policy Institute, told the newspaper.
But not everyone agrees with that reasoning. A series of studies have found "little linkage" between border security and illegal immigration, according to the Post.
Princeton University sociologist Douglas Massey, who oversees a project that has interviewed thousands of illegal Mexican migrants over three decades, said demographic changes in Mexico, such as women having fewer children, are impacting the numbers, not border enforcement.
Researchers tell the Post that corollary issues could be at play as well. Enhanced security means the trip across the border has become much more costly.
"In particular the exploding cost of hiring a guide," according to the Post. "The journey has also become more arduous and dangerous, in part because the DHS has plugged traditional crossing points and driven migrants deeper into the desert."
Current and former DHS officials tell the Post that a "confluence" of factors play a role in the decline, but they say they are confident that enhanced border security is the key.
"It used to be that you could literally sit at a bar in Tijuana, Mexico, look across the border into San Diego, wait for the Border Patrol to drive in the other direction and make a run for it," said Steve Atkiss, a former Customs and Border Protection chief of staff. "It’s much more difficult and expensive now."
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