Hurricane season started Thursday with federal weather forecasters predicting that there is an 80 percent change of near or above-normal hurricane activity in the central Pacific basin and a 45 percent chance of the same in the Atlantic Ocean.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30 and is typically the time when weather conditions are most favorable for the powerful storms to form. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association said El Nino is playing a large part in the Pacific Ocean's potential activity.
"El Nino decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical central Pacific, which favors the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones," an NOAA statement said. "El Nino also favors more westward-tracking storms from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific."
Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said the outlook reflects the prediction of a transition to weak El Nino in the Pacific over the next several months.
"If El Nino develops, it may become strong enough to produce an above-normal season," Bell said in the statement.
The NOAA statement added that the central Pacific basin could see a longer-term period of increased tropical cyclone activity in response to changes in global sea surface temperatures patterns in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
In the Atlantic, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
Forecasters said in an NOAA statement that there is a 70 percent chance of the Atlantic producing 11 to 17 named storms, with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. They said that five to nine of those could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher.
The NOAA predicts that two to four of those could become major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or more. The Atlantic has had one hurricane outside of the regular season when Arlene formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.
Tropical Storm Arlene became only the second April tropical storm of record in the satellite era, but never made land and fizzled in the central Atlantic Ocean, according to The Weather Channel.
"The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region," Bell said about the Atlantic prediction.
Atlantic storm names after Arlene include Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney, noted the NOAA.
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