Recent polling is showing an 11th hour shift to the left in several key Congressional races, which could be a warning that Republicans may not dominate the midterm elections as expected.
Seven out of 10 key races are appearing to shift to the left, the Cook Political Report said Wednesday as Democrats appear to be holding up in contested states even as Democrat President Joe Biden and the party's Congressional leadership rankings continue to be underwater with voters.
"A pattern has begun to emerge in surveys by both parties, House Democrats' polling numbers are holding up surprisingly well in states with contentious statewide races driving turnout, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania to name a few," Cook correspondent David Wasserman wrote Wednesday.
In a chart Wasserman posted on Twitter to go along with the article, Democrats seem to be holding their own in those states and even slightly pushing the needle left.
The publication changed its ratings in seven of the 10 highlighted races from "lean" Democrat for incumbents Rep. Josh Harder, D-Calif., and Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., to "likely" Democrat, according to the chart.
In Michigan and Nevada, incumbents Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., and Rep. Steven Horsford, D-Nev., saw their rankings move from "toss up" to "lean" Democrat, while incumbent Democrat Rep. Susan Wild saw her Pennsylvania race upgrade from "lean" Republican to "toss up."
For Republican incumbents, open Democrat seats in both Florida and Texas shifted in their favor.
Texas' 15th District is now ranked to "likely" Republican from just "lean," and an open seat in Florida's 7th District previously held by a Democrat, has shifted from "likely" Republican to "solid" now.
The trends are not looking as good for two Republican incumbents, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., and Rep. Mariannette Miller Meeks, R-Iowa, who have seen their races shift from "likely" to "lean" Republican in the Cook chart.
On Tuesday, the publication shifted the key Pennsylvania Senate race from "lean" Democrat to "toss up" between GOP candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.
Another polling publication, FiveThirtyEight.com predicts that while it is likely Republicans will take the majority back in the House, it is also likely Democrats retain the majority in the Senate, or even gain seats.
"Ever since the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, the national environment has improved for Democrats," the website reported Monday. "However, there are still a few reasons to think the race could swing back to Republicans in the campaign's final month."
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