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Tags: cook | gop | house | democrats | politics

Final Pre-election Cook Report: GOP 'Easily' Taking House

(Dreamstime)

By    |   Tuesday, 08 November 2022 01:15 PM EST

One of the top political analysis reports in the nation said in its final article before Tuesday's election that Republicans could "easily" take the majority in the House in the midterm elections.

"A dearth of high-quality public polling has made House races tricky to forecast this year, relative to the last midterm in 2018," the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman wrote Monday. "But a House control appears easily within the GOP's reach — with the biggest remaining mystery the size of that majority."

According to the organization's analysis, Democrats are likely to win 187 races, compared to 212 likely GOP victories, with 36 contests that could go either way.

All 435 House members are up for election this cycle with 218 needed to claim the majority in that chamber.

Democrats currently hold the majority 220-212 with three vacancies after the 2020 elections, and the Senate evenly split 50-50 with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote in that chamber, according to the government's website.

"This cycle's House landscape is unusually uneven: in blue states, both parties' internal polling has found Democrats in double-digit Biden seats — including DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney, N.Y.-17, and Katie Porter, Calif.-47, — in tight races defined by crime and inflation," Wasserman wrote. "Yet other Democrats in red states continue to hang tough, defying the president's low approval [in many cases, aided by polarizing GOP opponents]."

According to the organization's analysis, 26 Democratic-leaning races, including eight "open" seats, are in the "toss-up" category, compared to 10 races including just two open seats for GOP leaning races, giving the GOP a bigger chance to flip seats from the Democrats.

The FiveThirtyEight political website gives Republicans 84 in 100 chances to win the House majority, compared to 17 out of 100 chances for Democrats, roughly the same chance the GOP had in June when the organization started the forecast.

"The 87-in-100 chance that Republicans had back in June was consistent with not only the polls, but also historical precedent," a report Tuesday on the site said. "The president's party has lost an average of 26 House seats in midterm elections since the end of World War II."

According to that site, the GOP must win five seats to take away the narrow nine-seat Democratic majority, and it has effectively 13 open seat races with a greater than 25% chance of winning to accomplish that.

"In total, there are 19 non-Republican-held House seats where Republicans have better odds of winning than Democrats," the report said, "including six where Republicans have at least a 97-in-100 chance of winning."

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One of the top political analysis reports in the nation said in its final article before Tuesday's election that Republicans could "easily" take the majority in the House in the midterm elections.
cook, gop, house, democrats, politics
429
2022-15-08
Tuesday, 08 November 2022 01:15 PM
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