McLaughlin Poll: McCaskill in Dead Heat With GOP Challenger

Missouri's 12-year incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., is running neck-and-neck with her GOP challenger, Missouri prosecutor Josh Hawley, recent polling shows.

Four recent surveys show the pair in a statistical dead heat in "one of the most hotly contested races in the country," according to a memo from GOP pollster McLaughlin & Associates for Missouri Rising Action, a super PAC backing Hawley.

The polling firm noted the super PAC's own poll last December had McCaskill ahead 3 points over Hawley — but within the margin of error.

"The average of the recent independent polls has the race in a statistical tie," the pollsters wrote.

Here is the breakdown from RealClearPolitics of three April surveys cited in the memo:

• In an Emerson College poll April 26-29, McCaskill was at 45 percent, as was Hawley at 45 percent.
• In a Missouri Scout poll April 19-20, McCaskill had 48 percent to Hawley's 44 percent.
• In a Mason Dixon poll April 4-6, McCaskill had 45 percent to Hawley's 44 percent.

"Besides being too close to call, the one thing each poll has in common is Claire McCaskill is under the 50 percent ballot threshold, which is a sign of vulnerability for an incumbent," the pollsters wrote in their memo.

Missouri was a state in which President Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, 57 percent to 38 percent, the polling firm noted.

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