Biden Can Break the Russian Matrix

The Russians overwhelmingly support both President Vladimir Putin his war in Ukraine.

But there is also dissent. It is a minority faith, although it is alive and well, or at least breathing.

Anti-war and anti-government demonstrations took place in almost 60 Russian towns. They were promptly put down by the riot police.

The cops targeted the organizers, or at least people perceived as ring leaders. Waving a banner or a placard around made you one. Thousands were roughed up, taken in, and charged with disturbing the peace.

The anti-war protesters are a mixed bag of detractors of Putin from various backgrounds and orientations, spanning the entire spectrum from radical to liberal. The bulk are what we refer to as “middle class.”

They are hard-working beneficiaries of Russia’s post-socialist economy and opening to the West. Because of the war in Ukraine, and attendant Western sanctions, they have seen their savings wiped out and modest assets depleted.

Further, the good life seems over as the “middle class” came to know it and enjoy it after the implosion of the USSR in 1992. Every major Western company has been pulling out of Russia: from Facebook and Twitter through Netflix and Disney all the way to McDonald’s and Microsoft as well as credit card, energy, and automobile firms.

Of course, that may be a pose. Our Fat Cats did not go woke until after the woke revolution had prevailed in our culture and institutions, chiefly media and universities. As far as Russia, it may be that the Big Tech and others follow the anti-war woke trend for now until things calm down so they can return.

Yet, the Russian “middle class” fears that the law of unintended consequences may yet see Russia turn into an autarchy or a Chinese marketplace. No wonder some Russian have taken to the streets.

As the numbers of protesters have dwindled lately, the activists have taken to picketing, only to be thwarted by the police.

Among them are supporters of politicians like Alexei Navalny, who is in the Gulag, or individualists like Marina Ovsyannikova, a TV journalist, who objected to the attack on Ukraine live on the air and was promptly detained.

There are also intellectuals, for instance our fellow historians, like Aleksandr Guryanov, the head of the Polish section of Memorial (Remembrance), a human rights organization restoring the memory of the victims of Communism. Guryanov has just been arrested for anti-war picketing.

I’m also worried about his fellow Memorial researcher, our friend Nikita Petrov who specializes in the Soviet terror apparatus. Did I mention that the Kremlin outlawed Memorial a few months ago?

Nonetheless, thousands have attended numerous demonstrations, at least initially, a respectable showing under the circumstances.

Now the circumstances have changed, alas, making both overt and covert dissent much harder. With the president’s blessings, the Duma passed new censorship laws against war-time dissent, in particular any public reporting on the fighting in Ukraine that contradicts the official Kremlin propaganda line.

Putin himself inveighed against “the 5th Column” and “traitors,” implying purges.

He has further targeted a number of high profile cronies, including in the secret police, the FSB and GRU, as well in the military. He blames them for the lackluster, if not disastrous, performance of the Russian armed forces at the front as well as intelligence failures.

All this transpires to the wild cheers of the general Russian public. Official and unofficial polls reflect that as well as anecdotal evidence, including social media.

A ubiquitous “Z” — a meme for victory — signs testify to widespread support for the Russian army’s “special operation,” as Putin has dubbed the war in Ukraine. The Russians believe that Russia is winning in Ukraine.

Like Russian soldiers at the front, the civilians at home are also convinced that the Russian armies are liberating Russian-speakers there from “the Nazis,” a trope that has a long leftist pedigree, going back to Marx and Stalin, as Juliana Geran Pilon has pointed out.

If Ukraine fails to secure help soon, Russia will most likely win. That would strengthen the Kremlin’s matrix and its sway over the Russian population.

On the other hand, a Muscovite defeat would weaken the spell that Putin holds his people under. Helping Kiyv even indirectly can destabilize Moscow, and even lead to a regime change there.

To take advantage of it, President Joe Biden should come out of his own matrix and start being pro-active.