The three horsemen of Election Day are riding rough-shod over voters this election cycle.
Many Democrats fear the worst, for Nov. 8, 2022, and they should.
At this late date in the election cycle, most Democrats — from party leaders and political analysts, to voters and members of the press — are cautiously pessimistic about Tuesday, Nov. 8.
Sure, Democrats might lose a scant few seats; but the president’s party almost always loses seats during a midterm election; thus, it won’t be that harsh of a referendum if they do.
Everything is fine, really.
With that comforting thought, some elected officials and their campaign managers have been able, with varying degrees of success, to ignore clanging alarm bells emanating from polls.
Those tolling bells are ringing loudest for Democratic Party U.S. House members and candidates. The House of Representatives is widely predicted to change hands after November’s election.
In August, current House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., was quite bullish about Democratic Party chances in the midterm election:
"I was just in 12 cities in 12 days," Speaker Pelosi told the press. "We’re ready. So when the Dobbs decision came down, it wasn’t one of those, 'if only we had known.’'No. We believed we were going to win from January 6 on — well, even November of last year on."
Speaker Pelosi again struck an optimistic note during a September news conference.
"I’m very confident that we will win the House," she said at the time.
This week, Pelosi was even more adamant during an MSNBC interview.
"Do you think that comment which was made by House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy [(R-Calif.)] about a blank check [for Ukraine military spending] — is that a disqualifying comment for someone third in line to the presidency?"
Pelosi was asked during the interview.
"Was I not clear?" she answered, appearing to bristle at the question.
"We are going to win this election."
"Take it to the bank," the speaker added later.
Pelosi is an outlier in her optimism, however. Most Democrats have resigned themselves to losing the House; many are fearing their Senate majority may be slipping away as well.
Anything could happen between now and Election Day, of course. Democrats may well outperform the polls, as Republican candidates have done over the past few election cycles.
But if things continue on their current trajectory, voters are set to punish the Democratic Party in particular on Election Day, for slights real and imagined.
Three issues in particular have come to the forefront this year and, fair or unfair, poll respondents seem intent on blaming Democrats.
Inflation, the economy, and crime.
Concerns about inflation and economy are sitting astride the 2022 election like a great colossus. One poll may be unreliable, two polls are hardly better; when all the polls seemingly say the same thing, that thing may be true.
Crime — which, like inflation, has risen by astronomical proportions in many cities and states over the past year — has emerged late as the sleeper issue in this election.
Concerns about rising crime were barely registering in the polls two years ago. Even six months ago, crime hadn’t yet emerged as the leviathan it has become in recent weeks.
For the Democratic Party, concerning the three thorny problems of inflation, the economy and crime, it is a question of bad news, worse news, worst news.
Bad news: Republican Party candidates are gaining ground in the polls.
Worse news: It’s happening in places like NY, Oregon, and Rhode Island. Worst news: Pollsters are probably still undercounting Republican voters.
Bad news: The "Defund the Police" movement was an unmitigated disaster.
Worse news: Rising crime has become the surprise sleeper issue of 2022.
Worst news: Voters blame progressives for the "Defund" fiasco.
Bad news: The high price of diesel fuel is baked into everything we buy.
Worse news: Higher prices and higher rents aren’t leaving anytime soon.
Worst news: Voters trust Republicans over Democrats on the economy.
There seems to be no shortage of blame and finger-pointing as the final days of October tick by. Everyone from Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., to former-President Barack Obama is full of advice about what went wrong with Democratic Party messaging this year.
There are just as many opinions on how to fix that messaging.
Most beltway insiders are seeing the writing on the wall and are privately preparing for the worst, even while publicly hoping for the best.
Unless their fortunes change — drastically, and for the better — between now and Election Day, Democrats are on track for a serious electoral shock and setback.
Inflation, the economy and crime will be the reasons why.
Dr. Munr Kazmir is a Pakistani-American Entrepreneur, Philanthropist, and vice president of the American Jewish Congress. He is the Bektashi Community's Goodwill Ambassador and a Board Member for the Republican Jewish Coalition, New York Medical College, George Washington University, John Cabot University, Rabbinical College of America, and the DEA Survivors. Reade More Here.
Brooke Bell is a Washington, D.C writer/analyst. On politics and foreign policy, her focus is free speech, individual rights, and global peace. Read More Here.
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