With House Republicans poised for their latest attempt to designate a speaker candidate Tuesday morning, the withdrawal of Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., Monday evening reduces the number of contenders from nine to eight.
Even opponents agree that House Majority Whip Tom Emmer is the front-runner in the field and should get the most votes on the first ballot.
Sources told Newsmax that the Minnesota Republican hit the 50% mark in the first vote Monday, as moderates and close allies backed him.
As chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2020 and 2022, Emmer, 62, has considerable political chits to call in.
Emmer’s problem has been a fractious relationship with former President Donald Trump, dating back to 2020 when he was 1 of 2 of the eight-speaker candidates who voted to certify Joe Biden’s election.
Campaigning in New Hampshire on Monday, Trump told reporters Emmer had called him Sunday to say he was “my biggest fan.”
Trump added that he was not working against Emmer and, having earlier endorsed the unsuccessful speaker candidacy of Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, was staying out of the current contest.
But Emmer is simply not liked by the Freedom Caucus group, and most of his early support comes from members who do not strongly support Trump.
But the largest number of “MAGA Republicans” in the GOP Conference who have committed to a speaker candidate are with House Republican Study Committee Chair Kevin Hern of Oklahoma.
A stalwart conservative and self-made millionaire (Hern owns a significant number of McDonald’s franchises), Hern was clearly prepared to run and has been lining up support over the weekend.
A sign of his entrepreneurship was to send numerous colleagues packages of chicken McNuggets.
After Emmer and Hern, most handicappers guess that the next tier of candidates are Reps. Pete Sessions, R-Texas; and Byron Donalds, R-Fla.
With 22 years in the House, Sessions is the most senior lawmaker in the race and, as one Texas Republican told Newsmax, “he doesn’t have an enemy among his Republican colleagues and may even get a few Democratic votes when the full House finally elects the speaker.”
Two-termer Donalds is a swashbuckling conservative who has the backing of nearly all of the 19 GOP members from Florida.
He also scored something of a coup over the weekend when he was endorsed by Sessions’ fellow Texas Rep. Chip Roy.
The remaining four contenders are Reps. Gary Palmer, R-Ala., a major conservative thinker and onetime head of a conservative policy foundation; Austin Scott,, R-Ga., who drew the most votes in the Conference meeting that designated Jordan; Mike Johnson, R-La., a well-liked conservative; and Jack Bergman, R-Mich., a retired lieutenant general (USMC) and the highest-rank veteran ever to serve in the House.
Under rules laid out by House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., the lowest vote-getter on each ballot is eliminated and the vote continues (with secret ballots) until someone has a majority of the Conference and thus becomes the speaker designee.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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