Like a locomotive in the night, the headlights of the California primary are getting brighter and coming ever closer, bringing what will be a decisive conclusion to the 2016 Republican primary contest.
Despite all the machinations by the GOP establishment, the Golden State June 7 primary is likely to give Donald Trump enough delegates to place him either over the magic 1,237 number or close enough so that he can win the first round at the convention in Cleveland this July and secure the nomination for the presidency.
A simple fact seems to elude many in the press when it comes to covering the GOP presidential race. The only current Republican candidate who has an actual chance of obtaining a majority of delegates prior to the start of the GOP convention is the front-runner.
The other remaining candidates, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, only have a chance at the nomination if there is a contested convention.
Consequently, both of Trump’s competitors are desperately seeking to prevent the front-runner from winning enough delegates, while the GOP establishment and its anti-Trump super PACs are lending a helping hand.
Trump can put an end to the campaigns of his rivals and shut down the activities of the GOP establishment through a series of wins that are combined with strategic negotiations to secure unbound delegates.
Here is the math. It all starts with a major win in New York, where Trump will receive 14 delegates if he wins more than 50 percent of the statewide vote. Three delegates are awarded per congressional district in the Empire State.
Trump currently has 744 delegates, plus the 12 delegates that are expected to come from Missouri after the state has certified its primary results.
If polls hold true, Trump should add about 80 delegates from New York to his 756 delegates, resulting in an 836 delegate count.
On April 26, 172 delegates are up for grabs in contests that take place five states.
Pennsylvania has 71 delegates available, 3 of which are awarded from each congressional district. However, the delegates’ names are listed on the ballot without information concerning which candidate each delegate supports.
The winner of the state gets 17 delegates. Trump will win the lion’s share of the Pennsylvania delegation. The front-runner should conservatively win half of the congressional districts, resulting in a total delegate count of 44.
Similarly, Connecticut’s 28 delegates consist of 13 given to the statewide winner and 3 to the winner of each congressional district. Trump could sweep the state adjacent to his home; however, for the purposes of this analysis he is given 20.
The 38 delegates of Maryland are broken down by giving 14 to the statewide winner and 3 to the winner of each congressional district. Trump is likely to snag at least 30 of Maryland’s delegates.
Rhode Island awards its 19 delegates proportionally. Trump is in a position to take 9 of them.
All of Delaware’s 16 delegates are awarded to the statewide winner, which is likely to be the front-runner.
On April 26, Trump should take home 119 delegates, yielding him a total of 955.
Throughout the month of May, various states will dole out 199 delegates.
Indiana looms large on the primary calendar. The state awards 57 delegates, with the winner receiving 30 of them. The remainder of the delegates are distributed 3 apiece to the winner of each congressional district. If Trump’s momentum continues as expected, he should gather in about 40 delegates.
West Virginia voters elect delegates that are listed next to the candidate they support. The state has a total of 31 delegates available. Trump could rope in 25 of them.
Washington and Oregon both award their delegates proportionally. For the purposes of this analysis, no delegates have been awarded to Trump.
Nebraska gives all 36 of its delegates to the statewide winner. Cruz is likely to be the beneficiary of them all.
Trump will probably tally up 65 delegates during the May primaries, giving him a subtotal of 1,020.
The most dramatic day of the primary season is the final day, June 7, where a whopping 303 delegates will be distributed.
California is the biggest haul of the season, with 172 delegates available. Only 13 of them are awarded to the statewide winner, with the remaining 159 given to the winner of each of the 53 congressional districts, i.e., 3 per district. Trump is likely to receive 135 of them.
New Mexico awards its 24 delegates proportionally. Although Trump should win some of the available delegates, none was included in this analysis.
New Jersey hands out 51 delegates, all of which are given to the statewide winner. Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win New Jersey.
South Dakota awards the winner 29 delegates. With the fracking factor in play, Trump should be the victor.
Montana, which grants the statewide winner 27, is more likely to go to the Cruz column.
On that last crucial day, Trump could walk away with about 215 delegates, giving him a grand total of 1,235, a mere 2 delegates short of the magic number.
This is a gap that veteran convention manager Paul Manafort should be able to bridge with ease long before the convention’s opening gavel falls; and more importantly, before the first ballot of the delegates ever takes place.
James Hirsen, J.D., M.A., in media psychology, is a New York Times best-selling author, media analyst, and law professor. Visit Newsmax TV Hollywood. Read more reports from James Hirsen — Click Here Now.
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