Investors seem to breathe a sigh of relief when they saw the Dow reach 10,000 once again. However, it’s not the same 10,000 that we saw in March 1999.
Sure, the numbers are the same. However, let’s not forget that the Dow stocks are priced in U.S. dollars.
So we have ask, “What was the value of the dollar back in March 1999?” The answer: It was much higher than it is now.
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In fact, the U.S. Dollar Index was at 100 in March 1999. Today it sits at 75. That means that the value of the dollar has eroded 25 percent in value overall since the last time that the Dow was at 10,000.
So this Dow 10,000 is really Dow 7,500 in today’s dollars since these stocks that are valued in dollars have eroded 25 percent.
With the Dow still well over 4,000 points off of its highs and the dollar 25 percent lower, stocks haven’t gone anywhere in over 10 years.
I believe that we’re in for another downfall in stocks since consumers are still beaten up. They can’t spend because many are unemployed, and many of those who are still employed have their savings tapped and their credit lines tapped, and they can’t even get new credit from the banks.
The banks aren’t stupid because they don’t want to lend in a high unemployment environment. They’re smart enough to know that all of the improvement in the economy that we’ve had so far has been government induced with programs like Cash for Clunkers.
So the problem still isn’t fixed. On top of this, corporate earnings are still not expanding. They’re only beating earnings off of reduced earnings estimates and cost-cutting measures.
Until there is earnings expansion, there’s going to be no way that stocks permanently hold higher.
This rally’s days are numbered.
Therefore, you’d better diversify your investments before stocks crash again.
The nice thing about the currency market is that there are plenty of currencies out there that are not highly correlated to stocks and that will remain stable when stocks crash. There will even be some of them that get a second wind as stocks crash.
So if you want to handle the bumps to come a lot better than last time, consider currency investing.
Not sure where to get started? Check out my new currency service that’s launching on Nov. 19. I’ll be your guide.
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