Last Friday, I was interviewed by a radio station in Ft. Wayne, Ind., regarding an article I'd written about why Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal was wrong when he said that oil would never return to $100 per barrel again.
I told the radio interviewer that this was rediculous for several reasons:
- The prince isn't stupid. He knows his voice carries some weight. So he knows he can "talk down" oil a bit just by the weight his words carry when it comes to oil. In the industry, they call it "jaw boning." It's where you're trying to use your influence to bring an asset down rather than having to go into the market and place sell orders or sell-short orders in order to bring the price of the asset down.
- Our shale oil wells have been pumping like a madman, increasing the supply of oil on the market, but those wells deplete very quickly (within one to three years typically). So we burn through the wells quickly and it will be hard to sustain the supply at this huge level long term. Additionally, we're shutting down rigs, which reduces the above-ground supply of oil. This will eventually make oil head higher again.
- The added demand from China, India and other emerging markets will only continue to grow and that is what has moved oil from its previous range of $10 to $40 per barrel up to roughly $40 being the floor now and $110+ being the ceiling.
- We've got 7 billion people on the planet and we're expected to reach 9 billion to 10 billion people by 2050. That's going to place more demand upon the global supplies of oil, which will raise the price of oil over time.
- The Middle East needs $100+ oil overall to meet their budgets. And with Saudi Arabia's king recently dying and being replaced by a new king, if anything they'll need to pick up their spending in order to keep their people happy and make the transition of power smoother. So their costs, at a bare minimum, will remain the same but could go even higher. Sure, Saudi Arabia can handle lower oil prices for a bit, but not long term. Additionally, much of the rest of OPEC are screaming now because they're bleeding from oil in the $40s.
So that's what I told the radio interviewer about why I disagreed with Alwaleed and why I believed that oil would return to $100 a barrel, maybe not in months but certainly within a couple of years (which is far from Alwaleed's "never" scenario).
Then, on the same day that I gave the radio interview, I saw T. Boone Pickens on CNBC later that day.
He said that the prince didn't know what he was talking about.
Pickens has been watching the numbers closely and he said we've had 1,500 rigs out there pumping oil and about 300 of them have shut down, with more to come.
As more rigs are idled, the supply of oil here in America will peak (which he estimated to be within about six more weeks). Then he said that oil would begin an eventual rise. He thinks that we could see $70 to $80 oil by the fourth quarter of this year. And he said that Brent crude would be back to the $90 to $100 level within 12 to 18 months.
I agree with Pickens' assessment. I was telling my subscribers just the other day that the last time oil crashed from almost $150 down to $33 per barrel it was up to almost $90 per barrel in just over a year and it was up to $114 per barrel one year after that. And at the time when we were at $33 per barrel, you probably couldn't find anyone that would have believed that oil's price would have practically tripled in just over a year's time. Yet it happened.
And who would have thought after crashing from almost $150 per barrel down to $33 (such a harsh crash), that we'd see $114 per barrel within about two years? Hardly anyone. Yet, whether they believed it or not, it didn't keep it from happening.
Well, my subscribers to the Ultimate Wealth Report know I'm not playing around. They know that I firmly believe that oil will be notably higher in the next 12 to 24 months. How do they know?
Because my last two recommendations have been oil companies and the one that's about to come out shortly will be an oil company.
My subscribers have seen this scenario before. In 2012, oil went from $110 per barrel down into the high $70s. It seemed everyone was "doom and gloom" on oil and oil companies had gotten cheap as a result. We loaded up on several well-capitalized oil companies then and ended up being handsomely rewarded for running to oil companies when no one wanted them.
Well, here we are doing it again. I put out these recommendations and gave my radio interview before I knew what Pickens thought. But I have to say that I side with him when it comes to oil's coming rise and even the fact that it will go back to $100 per barrel in due time.
So, if you believe like I do and like the U.S. oil billionaire does, then come join us in the Ultimate Wealth Report and find out what we're buying to take advantage of oil's next rise.
About the Author: Sean Hyman
Sean Hyman is a member of the Moneynews Financial Brain Trust. Click Here to read more of his articles. He is also the editor of Ultimate Wealth Report. Discover more by Clicking Here Now.
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