The Commitment of Traders report for silver showed that for the 11th straight week, large speculators lowered their net long position.
Being the curious type, I went back and looked to see if silver has ever seen such a streak in the past. What I found was very intriguing.
The last time silver saw large speculators lower their net long holdings for more than 11 weeks was during a stretch from July 15, 2008, through Oct. 21, 2008. That is 14 weeks in a row where the group got less bullish.
The current streak started on July 15 and would reach 14 weeks on Oct. 21, should the streak continue.
The low in the net long position in 2008 was approximately 12,000 contracts. At present, the group is net long 6,626 contracts.
The similarities between the two periods don't end there either. The peak in long positions in both the July timeframes started in the 50,000 contract range.
While all these similarities are fun to look at and discuss, the most important item of note is that in October 2008, silver hit a three-year low before taking off on an incredible run.
From October 2008 through April 2011, silver went from a low of $8.40 an ounce to a high of $49.82 per ounce. That is a gain of almost 500 percent in 2 1/2 years. A similar move this time would put silver close to $100 an ounce.
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