Last Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed that small speculators are the most bullish they have been since last September.

The group has been adding bullish bets during the course of the last four weeks and this past week's total net position showed a net long of 203,544 contracts. This is the first time since the week of Sept. 16 that the group has exceeded the 200,000 threshold.

It could be a coincidence, but there are two things that jumped out at me about the Commitment of Traders report. The week of Sept. 16 was the week before last fall's big drop in stocks started. Secondly, that was the week that the September futures contracts would have expired.

Looking back to last March, the small speculators had also built a sizable bullish position and were long more than 200,000 contracts.

Last week, the week in September and a few weeks last March are the only weeks in the last year the group has been long more than 200,000 contracts.

The March contracts will expire on March 20, so we could see a big drop in the long holdings, just as we did in September and last March. The question is will we see a big drop in the S&P 500 like we did in September?