The stock market rally during the last few weeks continues to cause drastic changes in the sentiment indicators.
Last week I talked about the reversal in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
and the big jump in the bullish percentage on AAII Sentiment Survey.
During the past week, the VIX has stabilized and traded in a narrow range.
However, the same can't be said about the AAII Sentiment Survey. Whereas last week's big change was in the bullish percentage, this week it was the bearish percentage.
The bearish percentage dropped from 32.5 percent to 22.8 percent, the biggest one-week drop since last August.
The big drop in the bearish percentage combined with the bullish percentage increasing to 42.2 percent has put the ratio of bulls to bears at 1.85.
The four-week moving average for the survey is still down at 1.21, but that includes two of the lowest readings in the last six months.
I look for the survey results from this week to remain skewed toward the bullish camp and this will eliminate one of those low readings from the moving average.
In other words, look for the weekly results to remain elevated and look for the moving average to climb sharply in the next few weeks.
This elevated optimism could be a bad sign for stocks as we head into March.
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