Looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report from last Friday, there were two different futures contracts that stood out to me, but for very different reasons.
I have written about the COT report for oil several times in recent months, but large speculators are not budging off of their bullish stance. The most recent report shows that the group is net long 410,125 contracts.
They are still maintaining those long positions despite the fact that oil dropped 3.73 percent last week — the second worst week of 2014.
On the other hand, the COT report for Nasdaq futures shows that large speculators are net long a mere 25,233 contracts. The group hasn't held this few contracts long since December 2012.
Ironically, the last report where the large speculators were long less than 30,000 contracts coincides with the last time the Nasdaq closed below its 13-week moving average before going 15 months without closing below the trendline.
I'm not saying that the Nasdaq is ready to go another run like that, but it does seem to be a bullish sign for the index.
As far as oil, it looks like traders are looking for things in Ukraine to get more heated and expect that to drive oil higher. As of now, the tension in Eastern Europe has had little impact on oil prices.
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