Since June, the price of crude oil has plunged almost 32 percent from its high to its low. The commodity went through a similar slump in the middle of 2011 when the price fell just over 34 percent.
During the drop in 2011, the Commitment of Traders report for oil showed that large speculators moved from holding approximately 260,000 contracts long in April to approximately 130,000 contracts long in August.
The bullish sentiment was cut in half with a decline in price similar to the one we are currently experiencing.
The big difference this time is that the Commitment of Traders report showed a decent drop in bullish sentiment initially, but that drop has stalled over the last 10 weeks.
In June, large speculators were long approximately 450,000 contracts, a record high for number of contracts held long.
From late June through early September, the number of contracts held long dropped to just below 300,000 contracts.
Since the first week of September, the number of contracts held by large speculators has ranged from 267,000 to 300,000.
If the situations are similar, could these mean that the fall in oil price isn't over yet? Does the long position have to be cut in half before we see a bounce?
If that is the case, we would need to see net long positions fall to around 225,000 contracts before we see oil moving higher again.
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