The bears in the Treasuries market just can’t seem to catch a break.
Every time the stars appear to be aligned for government-debt yields to finally march higher, something comes along to reverse that momentum.
This time, a three-day streak of Treasuries losses that left yields poised to break out of their recent range was upended by a double-whammy: renewed trade-war fears and a disappointing March U.S. jobs report.
“There is no mojo” for bond bears, said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC. “Seems we are looking at another Q1 slowdown. The bigger issue is the stock market and the uncertainty that this tariff war is causing with gyrations in share prices and the possible future economic consequences.”
The 10-year U.S. yield rose as high as 2.84 percent Thursday, after diving as low as 2.72 percent Monday as sliding share prices stoked haven demand. On Friday following the release of the weaker-than-forecast March labor data, the yield fell 5 basis points to about 2.78 percent.
To be sure, the bears may yet have the last laugh before the markets close on Friday.
Many strategists expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who’s set to speak on the economic outlook in Chicago this afternoon, to remain steadfast in the view that growth is on a solid course, leaving policy makers on track to continue raising rates.
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