Gold has soared 5.3 percent from the four-month low it hit just nine days ago, and both the technicals and fundamentals point to further gains for the precious metal, says Rich Ross, head of technical analysis at Evercore ISI.
He told CNBC
it could be an 8 percent move, which would take gold to $1,300 an ounce from $1,201 early Friday.
As for the technicals, gold established a double bottom around $1,140, Ross said. Last Tuesday it reached a four-month low of $1,142.92. This pattern "should provide a solid foundation for a run higher" by gold, Ross argued.
In addition, the metal is close to its 100-day moving average of $1,206. "I think we have what it takes to punch through this moving average. It's had some success along the way calling the lows and providing support early last year," he noted.
As for fundamentals, "in recent sessions we've seen a rise in both volatility and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East," he said. "And importantly we've seen the strong dollar ease."
Saudi Arabia has launched a military attack in Yemen this week, and the United States has attacked Islamic State positions in Iraq. The euro has gained 3.6 percent since hitting a 12-year low against the dollar March 13.
For years conventional wisdom has been that gold moves inversely to the dollar, because the precious metal is priced in dollars. But that doesn't exactly get it right, according to a new study from the World Gold Council
First, the dollar has more impact on the precious metal when the currency is falling, according to the report. "Historically, when the dollar falls, gold has gone up 14.9 percent. When the dollar rises, gold has fallen 6.5 percent," the study stated.
For example from early 2014 to March 2015, the dollar soared 20 percent, while gold slipped just 1.2 percent.
Moreover, "the dollar's infl¬uence on gold has softened, as gold demand moves East and the world moves toward a multi-currency system," the study noted. "Since 2000, the dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen to 55 percent from 61 percent."
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