The price of gold will add to its 15% rally so far this year by continuing to climb even higher next year, Barron’s predicts.
The precious metal will extend its rise “because the gold stock indexes have been under powerful accumulation, and the dollar is getting closer to breaking down,” Barron’s explained.
Meanwhile, the gold options market recently saw $1.75 million in block trades betting the precious metal could almost triple in more than a year, surpassing the record, Bloomberg said.
Around noon in New York the day before Thanksgiving, 5,000 lots of a gold option giving the holder the right to buy the precious metal at $4,000 an ounce in June 2021 changed hands. The bets were sold at $3.50 an ounce.
“With gold trading below the strike price at $2,500 an ounce, this is one of the biggest contrarian bets anywhere,” Barron’s said, calling the move "a huge bullish block trade."
Bullion has gained 15% so far this year, which could be its biggest annual rise since 2010, mainly due to the trade war.
“It’s like 18-month term life insurance; what will the world look like if gold is at $4,000,” Tai Wong, the head of metals derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets, said in an email. “They are hoping for a quick violent move,” he said, referring to the people who bought the call options.
Gold futures climbed to a record $1,923.70 an ounce in 2011 as the Federal Reserve bought more than $2 trillion of debt to stimulate the U.S. economy. While bullion has rallied this year, the precious metal is still 24% below the current all-time high.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,473.16 an ounce early Friday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,478.00. Despite some losses, bullion is still headed for a second straight weekly gain, up about 0.7% for the week so far. The metal hit a one-month high of $1,484 an ounce on Wednesday, Reuters said.
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