Gold’s rebound may extend to $1,335 an ounce before prices resume a retreat toward a three-year low of $1,100 in the next two months, according to technical analysis by Barclays Plc.
Bullion futures’ trading volumes have declined on price gains since mid-April, when the metal entered a bear market, Comex data shows. That’s a bearish signal because it indicates less investor interest to participate in advances, Barclays analyst Lynnden Branigan said by e-mail July 12.
The bank recommends selling on any rallies toward $1,335, which is the 50 percent retracement of the drop from May to June, one of the levels singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis.
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Gold slid 23 percent this year, reaching a 34-month low of $1,180.50 on June 28, as some investors lost faith in it as a store of value after the Federal Reserve indicated it may slow bond purchases as the economy improves.
Prices rebounded to a two-week high of $1,298.73 on July 11 as physical demand increased and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. still needs stimulus. The metal traded at $1,291.12 in London.
“We believe that there is still downside risk toward the $1,100 to $1,150 area,” said London-based Branigan, citing monthly Fibonacci retracement levels and an Ichimoku cloud base. “Timing could be in the next one to two months.”
Bullion last traded below $1,150 in April 2010 and below $1,100 in March that year. Prices reached a record $1,921.15 in September 2011.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in an asset or security. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.
The Ichimoku strategy uses a cloud and lines based on median prices to provide what some analysts refer to as a “chart at a glance.”
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