Gold is likely to get an added boost as uncertainty over the U.S. election reinvigorates demand for the metal as a haven, according to Peter Grosskopf of Sprott Inc., the precious-metals-focused money manager.
Bullion, which reached a record high last month, has stumbled in recent weeks, hampered by signs of stabilizing economies and a surge in equities.
The election may renew investor focus on inflation, government debt and the need for stimulus, Grosskopf said. Gold could get an added lift from a win by Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, who is seen as likely to raise taxes and increase spending, he said.
The lead-up to the election “will accelerate the interest in gold,” Grosskopf, chief executive officer of Toronto-based Sprott, said by phone. “The world will become a lot more uncertain again and people will go back to being nervous,” he said. “It’s a pendulum now that’s swinging. It’s got a lot further to move.”
Gold has jumped about 28% in 2020, making it a top performer in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, after the coronavirus pandemic sparked demand for the metal as a store of value. Unprecedented economic stimulus from governments and central banks has also raised the specter of inflation, adding to the appeal. Bullion touched a record $2,075.47 an ounce on Aug. 7.
The rally has shown signs of losing momentum as economies reopen, with the metal posting a third weekly loss in four on Friday.
Possible renewed concerns may center on future inflation, the amount of debt that’s been created by governments around the world and a need for more government support to revive the global economy, Grosskopf said. The continued movement of capital from sectors including cash, fiat currencies, credit markets and Treasuries will help gold work its way into the mid-$2,000 range some time during 2021, according to Grosskopf.
“Especially if Biden gets in, the leading view is that he’ll increase taxes and increase spending,” he said. “Equities will look relatively less attractive and the deficit will continue to spiral even higher. Gold tracks well against that as a hedge.”
© Copyright 2023 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.