On Thursday the bulls gained firm control of the market and took stocks into positive territory for the week. Discussion centered on what will happen when traders return from vacation and whether or when the FOMC will raise interest rates. The Kansas City Fed held its annual conference in Jackson Hole amid demonstrations of opposition and support for Fed policy.
Technician Sandy Jadeja, Chief Market Strategist at SignalPro, set forth his interpretation
of recent market volatility, tracing weakness back to late May. His analysis of Elliott waves and a simple sine wave indicate the current rally will be temporary. He is pointing to another key date on September 14, when he expects a breakdown of 2000 Dow points, but he is bullish on oil.
Bill Rhodes, former Senior Vice President of Citigroup, now head of Rhodes Global Advisors and a Professor-at-large at Brown University, gave his view
of events in China and global markets. Rhodes contends that the US and UK are the only economies that are growing, with the global economy buffeted by “too much liquidity sloshing around.” Asked by Kelly Evans whether this is another financial crisis, Rhodes demurred but noted “a tremendous reach for yield,” specifically in the property, stock, and art markets. He predicts that the Fed and Bank of England will withdraw the excess liquidity, and “all those bad bets are going to come home to roost.” This writer expects, to the contrary, that the Fed will extend its intervention in order to prop up and bail out the overextended speculators, for two basic reasons. One is that this is how the authorities have managed the financial crisis for half a century; the other is that the Treasury and Fed will do everything they can to push the next crisis episode past the 2016 election.
Famed trader Jim Paulsen, of Wells Capital Management, contends that the market
had become overvalued and investors had gotten too complacent. Paulsen refrained from opining on whether the decline is over, but he said what he uncomfortable with the prevailing view that the decline was “just a refreshing pause in an ongoing bull market,” even though he agrees with it.
Julian Emanuel, of UBS, cites a strong durable goods report
as evidence the U.S. economy is not headed for a recession, and without a recession, he does not expect an extended market decline.
With the financial services industry vulnerable to, and perhaps overdue for, disruption, it is interesting to hear James Simpson, CEO of SQFT, talk about a mobile app
that disrupts the role of real estate agents who represent sellers. Considering the legions of agents who engage in this activity, if this or some other app takes hold, it could have a significant impact on what is now a very politically powerful industry even if its profitability is marginal. The overriding point for this writer is that anyone who performs an agency function in finance is vulnerable to disruption.
Finally, Fast Money traders digested
the day’s trading. Guy Adami suggested that “volatility is here to stay.” Karen Finerman said that as a “value-oriented” investor, Thursday was more difficult for her than Monday had been. Brian Kelly suspects that the latest rally will prove to be a “bull trap” and that selling will resume after the next meeting of the FOMC. Tim Seymour insisted that he thought the economy was strong last week, and he still holds this view. Adami promised to talk about “negative gamma” on Friday’s Options Action program.
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