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Tags: economy | recession | investors | stock market

Warning Signs of a Recession

Warning Signs of a Recession
(iStock)

Lance Roberts By Monday, 25 January 2016 10:19 AM EST Current | Bio | Archive


In late 2007, I was giving a presentation to a group of about 300 investors discussing the warning signs of an impending recessionary period in the economy.

At that time, of course, it was near “blasphemy” to speak of such ills as there was “no recession in sight.”

Then, in December of that year, I penned that we were either in, or about to be in, the worst recession since the “Great Depression.” That warning too was ignored as then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that it was a “Goldilocks Economy.” The rest, as they say, is history.

I was reminded of this as I was reading an article by Myles Udland, via Business Insider, entitled “The U.S. economy is nowhere near a recession.”

It is an interesting thought. However, the problem for most analysts/economists is that they tend to view economic data as a stagnant data point without respect for either the trend of the data or for the possibility of future negative revisions.

However, in reality, they are more coincident in nature. It is just that it takes roughly 6-12 months before the economic data is negatively revised to show the start of the recession. For example, the recession that started in 2007 was not known until a year later when the data had been revised enough to allow the NBER to make its official call.

The market decline beginning this year is likely an early warning of further economic weakness ahead. I have warned for some time now that the economic cycle was exceedingly long given the underlying weakness of the growth and that eventually, without support from monetary policy, would likely give way.

Is the economy “nowhere near recession?” Maybe. Maybe not. But the recent data look extremely similar to where we were at this point in late 2007 and early 2008.

Could this time be “different?” Sure. But historically speaking, it never has been.

Lance Roberts is a chief portfolio strategist and economist for Clarity Financial. To read more of his commentary, CLICK HERE NOW.

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LanceRoberts
In late 2007, I was giving a presentation to a group of about 300 investors discussing the warning signs of an impending recessionary period in the economy. At that time, of course, it was near "blasphemy" to speak of such ills as there was "no recession in sight."
economy, recession, investors, stock market
340
2016-19-25
Monday, 25 January 2016 10:19 AM
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