Overall, Zillow economists foresee the U.S. housing market remaining virtually flat in 2023 — but they have pinpointed 239 markets out of 400 major metro areas where they expect prices will increase.
The Zillow Home Value Index is projected to rise a mere 0.50% in 2023. However, more than half of the nation’s 400 largest real estate markets will see even more positive home price growth.
Starting in 2024, however, the panel foresees price growth picking back up, at an average clip of 3.5% per year through 2027 — the same rate that prices grew in the relatively stable period from 1987-1999, before the housing boom and bust cycle in the 2000s.
With a strong representation in the Southeast, Zillow projects the strongest home price increases for 2023 in Morristown, Tenn., (+5.1% forecasted growth); Rome, Ga., (+4.8%); Knoxville, Tenn., (+4.5%); Johnson City, Tenn., (+4.5%) and Atlantic City, N.J., (+4.2%).
Zillow economists estimate that the five metropolitan areas that will suffer the biggest home price declines in 2023 are: Lake Charles, La., (-7.2% forecasted decline); Houma, La., (-5%); San Jose, Calif., (-3.5%); Los Angeles (-3.3%); and Las Vegas (-2.5%).
Overall, Zoom projects the West coast to be the weakest region for housing prices in the U.S. in the coming year, primarily due to its overheated home prices and concentration of Big Tech employers, many of whom are in the midst of mass layoffs.
In fact, Zillow reports that 276 of major metro areas in the West have seen average home prices already decline from their 2022 peak, with prices in 32% of these markets down 5% or more.
Western metro areas that have already seen the biggest declines in their home prices are: San Francisco (-9.2%); Bend, Ore., (-8.3%); Santa Cruz, Calif., (-8.1%); Boise, Idaho, (-8%); and Austin, Texas, (-7.9%).
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