Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, warns that the S&P 500 hasn’t yet hit bottom.
He says the U.S. will be in a recession at least through the summer as the economy struggles to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, Barron’s explained
In a note to clients on Wednesday, TS Lombard strategists said the market has more room to fall, citing expectations that earnings for companies in the S&P 500 could fall roughly 30%.
“That decline, and the effects of the economic slump they see, put the fair value of the S&P 500 closer to 1600 to 1800, down as much as 35% from the closing level of 2475.56 on Wednesday,” Barron’s explained.
Dumas warns future fallout from countries around the world shutting down or slowing their economies to curb the spread of the coronavirus will include a slump in consumer and capital spending.
Another likely effect is a rationing of credit—increased difficulty in borrowing—that will slow the economy, Barron’s explained.
For the second quarter, Dumas estimates the U.S. economy could contract 18%, shrinking by 7% in the third quarter. So far, social- distancing measures in the U.S. have closed industries that contribute 30%—or 35 million—of private-sector jobs. TS Lombard expects 12 million people will lose their jobs in the first round of cuts in April, and that may not be the high mark.
However, other Wall Street experts are much more optimistic.
Investment guru Ed Yardeni believes Monday’s sell-off may have marked the bottom of this bear market.
Yardeni told CNBC that, based on discussions with some of his most experience clients, he thought there was demand for stocks.
In fact, Yardeni said the demand for stocks has been there for a while, but investors struggled to sell bonds as demand for cash grew.
The Newsmax Finance Insider also said he believed consumer spending would snap back once the coronavirus threat has passed.
“We’re going to have some terrible, terrible economic numbers, unemployment numbers right up ahead here for March and April and May … And I think once we perceive that it’s safe to go out again I think you’re going to see a tremendous amount of spending in the economy,” Yardeni said.
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