Now that the stock market has erased virtually all of the losses it suffered between Sept. 19 and Oct. 15, when the S&P 500 lost 10 percent, many investors have returned to a state of complacency.
But not so fast, says Todd Schoenberger, managing partner at hedge-fund firm LandColt Capital. "We are headed for dangerous times, which likely means a poisoned stock market in 2015," he writes on CNBC.com.
Schoenberger cites three specific geopolitical risks:
- "Russia has been carrying out a very complex formation of aircraft over Europe, thus leading many in the defense industry to believe a more provocative hostile conflict is pending.
- "ISIS recruitment reaches 'unprecedented scale' with 15,000 foreign jihadists joining militant fighters, an increase of 3,000 since September.
- "North Korea launches a Soviet-era style ballistic missile submarine, which is capable of launching nuclear weapons."
So forget about the election results, Schoenberger says. "Stocks will continue to soar as long as the homeland remains safe," he writes. "Otherwise, the clues are there for all of us to remain guarded, and thus prepare our portfolios for treacherous times ahead."
For the short term, some investors are looking at oil prices and earnings to guide the stock market.
"Look at the price of oil way down — that tells you everything you need to know," Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities, told Bloomberg.
"There might be some important things that come out of the election, but none of them will be bigger than the momentum from earnings and the impact that the price of oil will have on market sentiment."
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