Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt took a look at what stocks would do best in a "V-shaped" economic rebound.
A V-shaped rebound would be if the economy rebounds quickly from a temporary shock. Such evidence of a quick turnaround would be if corporate earnings go back to near their 2019 levels as early as in 2021, Barron’s explains.
McCourt said such a recovery would be very likely if virus treatments or vaccines are found in the coming months and fears over the virus subside. Such confidence would then allow consumer behavior to return to levels seen prior to the pandemic.
As a result, he said cyclical names with more leverage stand to gain.
Here are 10 such stocks (stock symbol/company name/industry sector), picked by McCourt:
- ISRG: Intuitive (Surgical Health Care)
- NOW: ServiceNow (Information Technology)
- BSX: Boston Scientific (Healthcare)
- UBER: Uber Technologies (Industrials)
- MU: Micron Technology (Information Technology)
- NXPI: NXP Semiconductors (Information Technology)
- PCAR: PACCAR (Industrials)
- BBY: Best Buy (Consumer Discretionary)
- APTV: Aptiv PLC (Consumer Discretionary)
- DAL: Delta Air Lines (Industrials)
For his part, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has sketched out an altogether bumpier ride for the U.S. economy than many are predicting - one that sees business activity stop and start for months to come, until an effective treatment or vaccine for the novel coronavirus can be found.
Since the novel coronavirus outbreak in the United States, economic growth stalled almost overnight as "stay at home" orders shut down large parts of the economy. Economists and Trump administration officials have been divided about how deep and long-lasting the economic impact will be, Reuters explained.
Life in the United States could return to "normal" by June, White House senior adviser Jared Kushner said on Wednesday, adding that "the hope is that by July the country’s really rocking again."
Others predict a "U shape," where it takes longer to bounce back. The idea of a "W-shaped" recovery has also steadily gained traction as health experts increasingly warn about a resurgence in virus cases come the fall, and with it, a new downturn in economic growth.
Just under half of 45 economists responding to a Reuters poll earlier this month said the U.S. economic recovery would be "U" shaped. Ten of those polled said it would be V shaped, and five said it would be "W" shaped. The poll was conducted before the price of a barrel of U.S. crude oil fell below zero.
Meanwhile, global funds recommended an increase in bond holdings to the highest level in seven years, at the expense of stocks, and said the recovery in the coronavirus-hit world economy will be U-shaped, a Reuters poll showed.
U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday as hopes for an effective COVID-19 treatment prompted a broad rally and helped traders shrug off bleak gross domestic product data and words of warning from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
But the April 16-30 poll of 34 fund managers and chief investment officers across North America, Europe and Japan - with over $2.5 trillion assets under management - showed a recommended cut to equity allocations to an average 45.1% of their model global portfolio from 45.9% in March. That would be the lowest in seven months.
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