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Tags: Insana | bond | yields | deflation

CNBC's Ron Insana: Run-Up in Global Bond Yields 'Telling Us Deflation Threat Receding'

By    |   Monday, 15 June 2015 09:01 AM EDT

Bond yields hit their highs for the year in many countries Wednesday, and that's good news for those who are worried about deflation, says CNBC commentator Ron Insana.

"It appears that global yields are telling us that the threat of deflation is receding, and receding more rapidly than many, myself included, would have expected," he writes on CNBC.com.

In the United States, the 10-year Treasury hit an eight-month high of 2.49 percent Wednesday and now stands at about 2.39 percent. Meanwhile, wholesale prices jumped 0.5 percent in May.

Massive central bank easing "has halted the slide in prices in the U.S., Europe and, to a lesser extent, Japan," Insana says. "In addition, asset inflation is either evident, or running rampant, depending on where in the world you look."

In the United States, the S&P 500 index has tripled over the past six years, and bonds have rallied for the last 34 years, leading to talk of bubbles.

"While reports of deflation's death may be premature, it seems the message of global bond markets is that we should at least be preparing its funeral rites," Insana says.

Elsewhere on the interest-rate front, remember the "taper tantrum" during the spring and summer of 2013, when U.S. bond yields soared after then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that the Fed would soon begin tapering its quantitative easing?

Well a reprise may be coming, as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates later this year, says Manoj Pradhan, a global economist at Morgan Stanley.

"Why are we worried not just about a taper tantrum but a triple taper tantrum? Because central banks do not have a contingency plan for success," he writes in the Financial Times.

"Even partial success — stabilization of growth rather than an outright revival — could be enough to derail their best-laid plans for a smooth exit from excessive monetary accommodation."

Triple apparently refers to the United States, Europe and Japan. "A combination of data in the U.S. that are good enough to warrant policy rate rises and a stabilization of growth in the euro area and Japan will probably be enough to raise the risk of a triple taper tantrum," Pradhan says.

The Fed has kept its federal funds rate target at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

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Bond yields hit their highs for the year in many countries Wednesday, and that's good news for those who are worried about deflation, says CNBC commentator Ron Insana.
Insana, bond, yields, deflation
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2015-01-15
Monday, 15 June 2015 09:01 AM
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