Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly, director of economic analysis for Fidelity, says a "job-full," but slow, recovery is ahead.
“A consensus among economists is that the current labor market will be a replay of the 1991 and 2001 so-called jobless recoveries,” Emsbo-Mattingly says in an article at Fidelity.com. “I'm decidedly not in that camp.”
Though the 1999 and 2001 recessions were followed by jobless recoveries, Emsbo-Mattingly believes a gradual rise in employment should not ignite consumer prices or lead to a dramatic jump in interest rates.
For the first time in a long time, she argues, we could see economic growth and low inflation existing side by side.
“I find the leading indicators extremely optimistic for job growth,” Emsbo-Mattingly says. “The best long-term indicator of employment is corporate profitability, which became more robust as 2009 progressed.”
“As corporate profits continue to recover in 2010 — and I expect they will — this can translate into job creation.”
TrimTabs Investment Research reports that its data, based on records of real-time tax receipts, show that job losses last month totaled 104,000, not 25,000 as the government said.
TrimTabs CEO Charles Biederman says he believes the public is being lulled into a false sense of improvement by incorrect federal jobs reporting.
''By the time everyone wakes up to the fact that the economy is not recovering, the damage will already have been done," Biederman told Money Morning.
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