The United States will "pretty likely" endure an economic recession in the coming months, stemming from what the Federal Reserve has already done to tamper down inflation, New York Fed President William Dudley told Bloomberg on Tuesday.
Dudley, a senior adviser to Bloomberg Economics, also said the presumptive recession likely would not be a severe slowdown.
"A recession is pretty likely just because of what the Fed has to do," said Dudley in an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance. "But what’s different this time, I think, is that if we have a recession, it's going to be a Fed-induced recession and the Fed can end the recession by subsequently easing monetary policy."
Last year, the U.S. central bank increased interest rates aggressively, in an attempt to keep in check the highest inflation registered in four decades.
The Fed said it will continue doing so until it achieves its goal.
Dudley said the Fed must boost the unemployment rate to a high enough level in order to slow down the economy. Such a move would likely do so by generating slack in the labor market and bringing wage inflation down to a level consistent with its 2% goal.
Also, Dudley stressed that even though the central bank seemingly controls the slowdown through these measures, "I don't think that there's a big risk of a financial-instability cataclysm that pushes the economy into a deep recession."
Dudley's comments regarding the nation's economy comes as two-thirds of economists also believe that a recession will occur soon, according to a Wall Street Journal survey.
That poll asked economists from 23 large financial institutions which conduct business with the Fed and concluded that most insist a recession would take place during 2023.
Only five of the financial institutions surveyed said they do not expect a recession to occur within the next two years.
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