A sweeping bill passed by the U.S. Senate
on Sunday and intended to fight climate change, lower drug prices and raise some corporate taxes, will bring down inflation over the medium to long term and cut the deficit, ratings agency Moody's Investors service said Monday.
The legislation, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, however, will not bring down inflation "this coming year or next year," said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president at Moody's Investors Service.
"We do think that this act will have an impact [of cutting inflation] as it increases productivity," she said, adding her horizon was two to three years.
Conflicting CBO Report
Contradicting claims from Senate Democrats, a report from the independent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicates that the measures in the $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) would have a marginal to negative impact on inflation.
Citing from the Build Back Better Act, a proxy for the IRA, the CBO wrote that the "estimate of the deficit reduction [for the Build Back Better Act] was lowered by $11.0 billion over the 2022-2031 period." Additionally, as CBO Director Phillip Swagel noted, if the bill passes, then "in calendar year 2023, inflation would probably be between 0.1 percentage point lower and 0.1 percentage point higher under the bill than it would be under current law, CBO estimates."
The Senate on Sunday passed the $430 billion bill, a major victory for President Joe Biden, sending the measure to the House of Representatives for a vote, likely Friday. They are expected to pass it and send it to the White House for Biden's signature.
Republicans, arguing that the bill will not address inflation, have denounced it as a job-killing, left-wing spending wish list that could undermine growth when the economy is in danger of falling into recession.
Bokil said in the immediate short-term future inflation was going to be tackled by the Federal Reserve as it raises rates.
Inflation expectations are a key dynamic being closely watched by Fed policymakers as they aggressively raise interest rates to contain price pressures running at four-decade highs.
While the short-term impact of the legislation on inflation will be modest, the bill still has the potential to bring down inflation expectations, Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow in economic studies at Washington think tank the Brookings Institution, told Reuters in an email on Monday.
Senate Democrats also said the act will cause a deficit reduction of $300 billion over the next decade while the U.S. Congressional Budget Office said the bill would decrease the federal deficit by a net $101.5 billion over that period. The CBO estimated in May that the 2022 federal budget deficit would be $1.036 trillion.
Asked about how the legislation would impact the budget deficit, Bokil said: "The savings from the Medicare side as well as the tax changes will more than offset the extra cost."
The legislation aims to reduce prescription drug costs by allowing Medicare, the government-run healthcare plan for the elderly and disabled, to negotiate prices on a limited number of drugs.
Edelberg also said the bill will lead to "greater corporate tax revenue than we otherwise would see," which will offset the cost and control the deficit.
Bokil also said that the spending bill was complementary to another bill recently passed by Congress, which aimed to subsidize the U.S. semiconductor industry and boost efforts to make the United States more competitive with China.
"They move in the same direction, so the Chips Act will also help with alleviating some of the supply chain issues," she said.
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