David Leonhardt of The New York Times provided inaccurate statistics in a column Tuesday arguing that the stock market is overvalued, says
Stephen Gandel, a senior editor at Fortune.
Leonhardt used Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), which is based on 10 years of earnings, to make his case.
"But Leonhardt failed to mention that there has been debate about the usefulness of Shiller's market measure, and he appears to have gotten some of his math wrong," Gandel writes.
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When the S&P 500's CAPE reaches 25 (it's 25.4 now), it falls an average of 12 percent annually after inflation during the next five years, according to Leonhardt.
"But that isn't correct," Gandel insists. "Going back to 1900, the market crossed 25 on the Shiller P/E on five occasions, and, on average, stock prices" have slid only 2.6 percent annually after inflation on average during the next five years, Gandel says, citing data from Birinyi Associates.
"And inflation is currently much lower than it has been in the past," Gandel notes. Leonhardt also leaves out dividends, which would boost returns, he argues.
CAPE has averaged 16.5 since 1881.
Still, some investors are wary of stocks, given that both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are within 1 percent of their record peaks.
"Whenever you're near all-time highs you're going to see skittishness," JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade, tells
The Associated Press. "In this market, the slightest news can change everything."
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