Tags: fitch | outlook | deficit | trump

Fitch: North America Sovereign Outlook Stable but Larger Deficits Under Trump Likely

Fitch: North America Sovereign Outlook Stable but Larger Deficits Under Trump Likely

(AP/Gerald Herbert)

By    |   Friday, 02 December 2016 07:02 AM EST

 

The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president with a Republican-controlled Congress "heralds a policy shift towards tax cuts and deregulation, which would be positive for growth in the short term, and a risk of protectionism, which would be negative over the medium term," Fitch ratings service recently said.

Fitch said "policy outcomes are uncertain at this early stage, with Congress potentially more hawkish on the fiscal deficit" than the president-elect.

Fitch expects a looser fiscal stance will lead to larger deficits and higher debt, adding it also expects a scaled-back version of Trump's campaign platform to be adopted.

"This will lead to faster growth in debt/GDP than our previous baseline. This could put pressure on sovereign creditworthiness, but there is no immediate risk to the US' AAA rating," Fitch said.

To be sure, many uncertainties loom as Trump takes office.

Financial markets could reverse the solid momentum in equities at the latest by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20, 2017, inauguration, Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Thursday.

The strong U.S. stock market rally, surge in Treasury yields and strength in the U.S. dollar since Trump's surprising Nov. 8 presidential victory look to be "losing steam," Gundlach, who oversees more than $106 billion at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, told Reuters.

"The bar was so low on Trump to the point people were expecting markets will go down 80 percent and global depression - and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz and so expectations are high," Gundlach said. “There’s no magic here.”

And if experts are correct, Trump will be greeted with a dismal milestone early in the new year.

The national debt will hit $20 trillion after Trump is sworn in next year — a figure double that of when Barack Obama assumed the presidency in 2008, The Daily Signal reports.

The forecast comes from Washington think tank, the Bipartisan Policy Center, which projects the debt cap limit to be reinstated on March 16 at $20.1 trillion.

Shai Akabas, the center's director of fiscal policy, told the Daily Signal that while it is uncertain what new revenues and outlays will be, "we project the total gross debt will hit $20 trillion sometime in February."

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StreetTalk
The election of Donald Trump as US president with a Republican-controlled Congress heralds a policy shift towards tax cuts and deregulation, which would be positive for growth in the short term, and a risk of protectionism, which would be negative over the medium term.
fitch, outlook, deficit, trump
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2016-02-02
Friday, 02 December 2016 07:02 AM
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