The chances of a recession in the United States are at their highest levels since the fall of 2011, the CNBC Fed Survey reported.
The survey also showed recession fears rising for the sixth straight time among respondents, and are at 28.8 percent.
“One fairly reliable recession indicator, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds has weakened just about to its lowest level since the last recession. But it tends to signal recession at zero... So at 118 basis points, it's softer, but not soft enough to signal recession,” CNBC
“The trouble is that, while there is weakness, it is not sufficient so far to bring the U.S. economy down,” CNBC reported. “Manufacturing looks to be contracting. Corporate profits are said to be in recession. And exports are weak. But the consumer is strong as is job growth and the service sector.”
The U.S. economy is weaker than expected though not likely headed for recession in 2016, Mohamed A. El- Erian said on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” with Maria Bartiromo.
“We are experiencing a lot of volatility. Growth and wages are lower than where we could’ve been, but let’s not forget it’s an economy that creates a lot of jobs,” the Allianz SE’s chief economic adviser said.
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