The economy has historically been a presidential election predictor, good news for President Donald Trump, according to an Axios report Sunday.
"Every incumbent president since FDR who has avoided a recession in the lead-up to an election year was re-elected," according to Axios.
Outside of public perception of President Trump's job performance and economy in polling, Axios highlighted these conditions:
- 2.3% and 2.9% growth in each of his first two years.
- Unemployment at a 50-year low and a record 103 months of job growth.
- Federal Reserve interest rates staying low with rare "tepid" inflation amid growth.
"Many voters are willing to forgive the noise (political incorrectness, tweets, Mueller) as long as the signal (economy) stays strong," lobbyist Bruce Mehlman emailed Axios in a presentation that included the above data.
There are still 18 months until Election Day 2020, so the economic data and Americans' confidence remain important aspects for President Trump's re-election campaign, because – as Axios noted – former President Jimmy Carter lost the 1980 re-election to Ronald Reagan as early term economic success waned.
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