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Tags: Economic | Momentum | weak | us

Strategist: Economy ‘Losing a Little Momentum’

Monday, 30 April 2012 11:11 AM EDT

The U.S. economy appeared to downshift as it entered the second quarter, with consumers increasing their spending only modestly last month and a gauge of business activity in the Midwest falling sharply in April.

Consumer spending rose 0.1 percent in March from a month earlier when taking inflation into account, the Commerce Department said on Monday.

Separately, a report from the private Institute for Supply Management-Chicago showed business activity cooled much more than expected in the Midwest during April.

"The economy is losing a little momentum," said Gary Thayer, a macro strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis.

The U.S. recovery had already slowed substantially in the first quarter as businesses cut back on investment and restocked shelves at a slower pace, data on Friday showed. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year compared to 3 percent in the fourth quarter.

Stronger consumer spending cushioned the blow, but Monday's data suggested consumers ended the quarter spending less freely.

Consumer spending climbed 0.3 percent, just below the median forecast in a Reuters poll, but inflation ate up most of that gain. "The higher gas prices we saw last month are taking their toll," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the Black Bay Group in New York.

After-tax income climbed 0.2 percent when accounting for higher prices, the Commerce Department said.

The data pushed U.S. stocks lower and lifted prices for the country's government debt. Investor sentiment also was hurt by confirmation that Spain sank into recession in the first quarter.


The ISM-Chicago index for the Midwest, which is based on a survey of both factories and service businesses, fell to 56.2 in April, its lowest level since November 2009.

It was the second consecutive monthly decline, although the gauge stayed above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

The reading follows several regional manufacturing surveys that have also suggested the economy started the second quarter on a soft note.

Another survey released on Monday showed that U.S. small business hiring slowed considerably in April, adding to signs of weakening in labor market conditions. Businesses added 40,000 new jobs, a step back from the 75,000 positions created in March, according to Intuit, a payrolls processing firm.

The government's closely monitored employment report due on Friday is expected to show that payrolls increased 170,000 in April, according to a Reuters survey.

A price index for personal spending rose 0.2 percent in March, according to the Commerce Department. In the 12 months through March, the index was up 2.1 percent, the lowest in a year but still above the U.S. Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent.

However, a measure of so-called core prices, which strips out food and energy costs, suggested some build-up of inflationary pressure. The core index, which is often read as a measure of inflation trends, rose 2.0 percent in March from a year earlier, the biggest year-on-year rise since November 2008.

© 2023 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

Monday, 30 April 2012 11:11 AM
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