CHICAGO (Reuters) - In a trend that bodes badly
for the U.S. jobs outlook, productivity in the world's biggest
economy is probably not headed for a sharp slowdown, according
to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Analysts generally agree that growth in labor productivity,
or output per hour of labor, must drop for the labor market to
recover strongly, San Francisco Fed senior economist Daniel
Wilson said Monday in the latest issue of the regional Fed
bank's Economic Letter.
Despite an unexpected decline in productivity in the second
quarter, history suggests that productivity grows more quickly
in a recovery than in the preceding recession, Wilson's
research shows.
For moderate GDP growth to translate to reasonably strong
employment growth in the next year or two, productivity would
need to slow to about 1 percent or less, well below the 2.5
percent rate at which it grew during the recent recession,
Wilson said.
"Today's forecasts of a sharp productivity slowdown,
necessary for robust employment growth, imply a serious
departure from history," Wilson said. "Productivity growth for
the next year or so might very well exceed forecaster
expectations, which would put a damper on employment gains."
As Fed policymakers prepare to gather Tuesday in Washington
to debate if and when to launch a new effort to boost the
sluggish economy, the U.S. unemployment rate -- at 9.6 percent
and rising -- is likely to be a primary focus.
San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen - who has been
nominated as the Fed's next vice chairman -- is seen as one of
the central bank's most dovish policymakers, concerned more
with bolstering jobs than the potential for easy monetary
policy to fuel inflation.
Jobs are also an important issue for politicians, as
voters' economic concerns take center stage ahead of
competitive mid-term congressional elections in November.
Wilson attributes some, if not most, of the recent rise in
productivity to capital utilization.
"Although measures of capital utilization have grown
rapidly during the recovery to date, they are still well below
their historical averages," he wrote. "That suggests there is
plenty of room for further increases in capital utilization
over the next several quarters."
Such increases could drive further productivity growth,
hurting chances for a strong recovery in jobs, he said.
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