The announcement last week by House Freedom Caucus Member and Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson that he would not seek the Republican U.S. Senate nomination next year had a profound impact on the GOP's chances of unseating three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Davidson, a swashbuckling conservative, was considered someone who could motivate both traditional conservatives and newer Trump backers. However, there was also concern on the right that he would split the right-of-center primary vote with fellow conservatives and ensure the nomination of more moderate Senate hopeful and state Sen. Matt Dolan.
Last year, running as an "establishment" Republican in the mold of retiring Sen. Rob Portman and the late Sen. George Voinovich, Dolan alone among a seven-candidate primary said Donald Trump should "stop talking about the 2020 election."
(Another reason for animosity on the right toward Dolan is that his family owns the Major League Baseball team in Cleveland and oversaw its recent name change from the Indians to the Guardians — a politically correct move urged by liberals in Ohio and nationwide).
In a race topped by present Sen. J.D. Vance, Dolan came in 3rd with 23.3% and carried only three counties. Dolan announced in January he would make another Senate bid this year.
Davidson's exodus leaves the primary to Dolan, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and car dealership owner Bernie Moreno, who briefly ran and then exited the '22 Senate primary (and is the father-in-law of Ohio GOP Rep. Max Miller). Already Moreno has the backing of Sen. Vance and Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA political action committee.
A U.S. Special Forces veteran and Bronze Star winner in Iraq, LaRose has been twice elected by big margins as Ohio's top elections official. He is best known for purging the voters' lists throughout the state of inactive voters and strengthening cyber-security to protect voting.
The lone Democrat in statewide office for more than a decade, Brown, 70, is known for maintaining a decisive left-of-center, pro-union voting record in a state that both Trump and GOP Gov. Mike DeWine carried twice.
"As far as Sherrod Brown is concerned he is a chameleon!" a former lobbyist and state official told Newsmax. "He morphs his messaging skillfully to fit the situation and always strikes a populist tone. He's very similar to Howard Metzenbaum [Ohio's Democratic senator from 1976-95].
"As an example, he very quickly jumped on the bashing of Norfolk Southern [railroad] and the derailment in East Palestine. He constantly jumps on any high profile issue and ratchets up the populist rhetoric. This is why he has appeal to the new Republican voters [Trump voters who rarely vote].
The same source added that "the Brown name in either primary is gold in Ohio and in a general. I am fairly certain there has been a Brown on the ballot statewide for almost a century here!" [Republican Ted Brown was secretary of state from 1950-78 and Democrat William J. Brown was attorney general from 1970-83]. He will be tough to beat, in my opinion."
Perhaps. But with Warren Davidson deciding not to make the primary more crowded and very likely splitting the conservative vote, the chances are a little better that the eventual nominee will unseat Brown.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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